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Multilatinas

April 14th, 2010 - no responses

We wrote previously on America Movel (AMX), the mother company of Claro, one of Brazilian’s fast growing mobile operators.

IDB just published this 234 page report on “Multi Latinas”, agressive Latin American companies that are a byproduct of the market liberalization that swept Latin American economies in the 1990s.    Their broadening reach through the United States and the rest of the world which has been simmering below the surface for years is beginning to turn heads.

An excellent in-depth report, highlighting the following Brazilian companies:
Natura
Vale
Petrobras
Politec IT
Embraer

One could easily add to the list:

TAM
Odebrecht / Braskem
Aracruz / Fibria
Suzano
Amanco

Read the full report here.

South Africa surprised last week with it’s interest rate cut, bringing it’s prime rate down to 10%.
Inflation is at 5,7%, which is just a tad under the maximal treshold of the SA Reserve Bank; stressing the boldness of the move, especially if one knows to which extent Eskom electricity rates will go up in April (and continue to raise it’s prices beyond April).  But the newly appointed South African Bank Governor Gill Marcus had to put a populistic stamp to please president Zuma, who is increasingly turning to the left.

In Brazil meanwhile Reserve Bank President Henrique Meirelles announced he will stay in post, despite the October elections ahead; only this announcement made the real increase further in value.  Meirelles also announced that the focus of the reserve Bank will remain on inflation control; somewhat in contrast to South Africa.  Inflation is at 5,17% and the SELIC intrest rate is currently at 8,75%.

Against the dollar the Real looks to end 2010 at a stable rate compared to end 2009; against the Euro though…

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The growth reflects Brazil’s thriving middle class growth and buying power.
The Brazilian mobile operator Claro will grow it’s current market share by 25%.

We bought in Claro’s mother company (America Movel: AMX) at 44,39 USD on the NYSE end of February; yielded 4,4% dividends in 2007 and has a solid valuation growth potential above 60 USD.

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We wrote previously about the increasingly stronger ties between Brazil and the Middle East.
Qatar Airways just confirmed it will start operating daily flights between Doha and Sao Paulo (GRU) as from june on.

Now we are awaiting for TAM’s announcement on direct flights between Brussels and Brazil.

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The ties between Brazil and the middle East have been growing increasingly stronger over the past year.
Last March 3d, Hillary went to Brazil with a preach on Teheran; Terence Neilan called the initiative “When Hillary Clinton meets with Brazil’s president today, it will be a case of the hawk meeting the dove on the subject of Iran”.

Last November Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, met with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Brasilia.  Lula then said Iran should not be sanctioned for its nuclear program.

And Clinton’s visit last week was a complete faillure; Brazil won’t bow down. After meeting in Brasilia with Foreign Minister Celso Amorim on Wednesday, Mrs. Clinton probably knows this better than anyone. Mr. Amorim said Wednesday that Brazil will not “bow down” to international pressure.

Hillary Clinton her visit was preceded by William Burns.  Burns is undersecretary of state for political affairs and is promoting sanctions to Iran.
Read his article on his Blog where he spoke of the status of Brazil as a clear “emerging power” and of the importance of the relationship between the US and Brazil.  The New York Times also wrote an insightful article on the matter.

But again, Brazil won’t bow down.
Last Friday, Brazilian president Lula da Silva left for an official visit to Israel, the Palestinian Territories and Jordan to discuss the Middle East peace process, Iran and trade cooperation.  Thhe focus is on high-tech sectors, including semiconductors, telecommunications, nanotechnology, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals.

While Brazil is taking the stage, China is facing challenges back home andChina is preparing for a showndown with the United States.  The Telegraph wrote today this excellent article: “The long-simmering clash between the world’s two great powers is coming to a head, with dangerousimplications for the international system“.

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