Obama in Brazil

Carnaval has just ended and all eyes are already on the next major event: Obama’s visit to Brazil on March 19th and 20th.

All the focus is on the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics, but Brazil will have many occasions before that to flex its muscles.   Obama’s visit is one of them. David Rothkopf of Foreign Policy summarized in his article of today why Obama’s visit goes far beyond protocol.

Of course, Obama is heading to Brazil (and the rest of Latin America) with mainly an agenda focused on trade.  He’ll spend a day in Brasilian and one in Rio.  And he is bringing the whole family and will spend a day visiting Cristo, the Sugerloaf, the beach.  Read: frontcover allover with his daughters and wife dancing Samba. The governor of Rio, Sérgio Cabral claims he will accompany Obama  on a tour of a local favela, and show off one of the UPPs through which the government is pacifying the favelas.

The timing couldn’t have been better for Brazil.  The BCC recently released a survey that shows that out of any country in the world, Brazil has gained the most popularity in the past year. In 2010, 49 percent of people polled in 27 countries said Brazil has a positive influence in the world, and the number of people who think this way is increasing. People in the US, Canada, Brazil, Chile, Peru and Mexico, as well as Western European countries, were the most positive in their views of Brazil; in China, there were more evenly mixed views, and in Germany, more people believed Brazil has a negative influence.  No word on Belgium.

And this positive reputation doesn’t just come from the upcoling Worldcup and Olympics.  It is mostly due to the excellent political, economic and social performance of the country as you can read in this article from AS-COA.

The new president is well-perceived as she took power  (The Guardian named her as one of the 100 most inspiring women today), Brazil’s robust economy, the expansion of the middle class and poverty reduction, Bolsa Família, and the government’s foreign policy are receiving thumbs up worldwide.

But the trip is not all PR.  One of the questions for Obama is: will he support the candidacy of Brazil to be a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council?
Brazil’s efforts to gain the permanent seat in the Security Council are hot.  But Obama already raised the support for India’s candidacy.   There are four countries that are regularly mentioned for such an upgrade in their status-referred to as the G-4, they are India, Brazil, Germany and Japan. The U.S. has long ago publicly supported Japan’s candidacy. The India statement now has Brazilians thinking their time has come.

Many Brazilians have already clearly said that if Obama does not  explicitly express support for Brazil’s candidacy for a permanent Security Council seat, the trip will be a failure. Some have gone further. During recent high-level Brazil-U.S. meetings, the message was delivered by the visiting Brazilians that should such support not be forthcoming, some in the Brazilian government might be inclined to re-examine how vigorously Brazil supports other U.S. objectives like strengthening the effectiveness of the trade deals Obama wants to put in place.  Let’s be honest, Obama needs Brazil more trade-wise than vise versa.  Or do you think Obama underwrites the Brazilian drilling inspired by an act of altruism?   Fortune just published today this article in which Brazilian Petrobras is posed to surpass Exxon Mobile and become the largest publicly traded oil company in reserves and production worldwide.  Obama also knows that Brazil will touch upon the currency matter where the dollar is undervaluated against the Brazilian Reais.

There are also rumours that Obama will announce the end of the tourist visa for Brazilians to visit the United States.  This would have massive impacts on the number of Brazilians traveling to the US.  Also here Obama is not altruistic, the man knows well enough what amount of “iPad buying” the lifting of the tourist visa will result in.  I guess that’s why Brazilian TAM is investing 3,2 billion US$ in new airplanes.  Some people believe Obama Obama will even perform a public speech to Brazilians as he did in Germany in 2008.  Let’s see, no man on the planet is better placed than Obama to make Brazilians know just how much they matter to the rest of the world.

Interesting weeks ahead, we’ll give our impressions.

PS and we completely understand why Michelle doesn’t let her husband travel to Brazil alone after he checked out the butt of 16 year old Brazilian delegate Mavora Taveras in 2009.

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