Interesting debate between Peter Schiff and Ron Shah on CNBC below. Peter Schiff is claims the dollar is going to fall like a stone whereas Ron Shah of Jina Ventures is clueless and states Indian and Chinese Markets “need American Management expertise”. To some extent I agree with Ron however that both China and India have grown a bubble to some extent. Only Peter Schiff refers to Brazil and China events of last week, rightly so.
Just as Peter Schiff I think the debt growth of the US is problematic to the dollar. The rhetoric question Felix Salmon raises on Reuters “Can America default?” is off topic however. Of course America will not default. What will happen however is that the whole world will realise that the US will never pay back its debts. Today the US has 11 trillion US$ in debt. Just like a household taking a loan the parameter which counts is the abolity to pay back that loan. In a household this is defined by the income of the household in the case of US debt this is defined by tax collection. The US government collects 3 trillion US$ in taxes. However, it borrows every year more because of spending. Today 30% of the US tax collection is used to service the debt (pay interests). If the US continues to spend every year more, soon 50% of the tax collection will be used to pay down intrests. This means taxes will increase even further and eventually this cycle will strangle the US economy sooner than later.
Lula da Silva, president of Brazil and Hu Jintao, China’s president met last week. An absolute major event on which none of the Belgian (economical) magazines or newspapers reported.
Countrary to what many believe, Brazil is not at all heavily dependend on exports to the US, Europe is a bigger export desitination for Brazil than the US is. Actually, in 2008 the US only represented 13,9% of the total Brazil export volume, this percentage is further decreasing and other export destination for Brazilian goods are fast increasing, the Middle East and China on top. In 2009 the US will be overtaken by China in the Brazilian export ranking, which is why Bank of China is setting up a Brazilian branch.
Marc Chandler reacted in Seeking Alpha with a pathetic frustro-American article. “Contrary to speculation that circulated, there was no agreement on the invoicing currency for bilateral trade”. Seriously Marc, which news source speculated that Lula and Hu were actually going to sign an agreement where both countries would invoice in bilateral trade without using the dollar? Isn’t the dollar alreayd plumetting enough?
Marc’s tone of voice really cannot hide his frustration of an American being wiped of the map: Brazilian President Lula had made some allusions to this last month around the G20 meeting. Today Brazil and China reached 13 new agreements, including China’s Development Bank,and signed a $10 bln credit agreement with Petrobras and $800 mln credit line for the Brazilian government’s development bank. This is very much as expected. In March and April, China and Brazil’s bilateral trade surpassed Brazil-US bilateral trade. Although this likely more a function of the deep contraction in the US than a surge in China-Brazil trade. The raw materials that China is so hungry for will be used to boost China’s productive capacity and manufacture goods that will then compete with other developing economies, like Brazil. That kind of trade may help underpin exports, but it does not lead to development in the same way that the US direct investment strategy–building plant and production locally–frequently does. Contrary to speculation that circulated, there was no agreement on the invoicing currency for bilateral trade.
The comments on Marc’s article speak for itself though. Read for example this reaction, or this one.
Besides, Thomas Wagner is right when he points out that China and Brazil are already settling their current account transactions in BRLM/RMB through China’s SAFE. Come on, Marc, do you really think there is any company of the BRIC countries first converting to dollars and then to the payee’s currency when settling transactions?
When reading Marc’s posting tou would think Brazil is an undiversified economy exporting just supplying other countries with raw materials. Wrong, not only are Brazilian exports diversified across raw materials (including agricultural commodities, metals, and energy), light industry, and industrialized products (Embraer, for example), but Brazilian exports are also highly diversified by export destination. A key source of strength for Brazil is its highly diversified economy. Within the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) dynamic, Brazil is often categorized as a raw materials exporter that supplies China, India, and others with raw materials for infrastructure and manufacturing. While it is true that trade with China has expanded dramatically and that commodity exports contributed significantly to recent GDP growth, Brazil’s exports are substantially diversified, as shown in Figures 3 and 4. Not only are Brazilian exports diversified across raw materials (including agricultural commodities, metals, and energy), light industry, and industrialized products (Embraer, for example), but Brazilian exports are also highly diversified by export destination. Raw materials only account for 32% of Brazil’s export.
There are hige export opportunitries for Brazil to China: fashion apparel, cosmetics, medical/dental equipment, building materials & fixtures, ethanol, processed food, bank automation equipment, specialty chemicals, etc…etc…
Uma vida prática e com muito estilo, é o que o empreendimento Le Jardin tem a oferecer a você e sua família. São três casas independentes cercadas pelo verde em um dos bairros com mais qualidade de vida de Florianópolis.
O empreendimento Moradas da Ilha, oferece a oportunidade única de morar em casas cercadas pelo verde em um dos bairros com mais qualidade de vida de Florianópolis.
Lula da Silva, president of Brazil and Hu Jintao, China’s president met last week. An absolute major event on which none of the Belgian (economical) magazines or newspapers reported.
