It’s clear that with the current overload of debt in the US, Europe and Japan (see Marc Faber last Monday) and the lack of growth in those markets,people are turning there eyes to other markets.
If you missed the 50 minute interview with Eike Batista on Charlie Rose: watch it now.
You cannot enter Brasil without knowing Eike Batista. His father ran Vale do Rio Doce, which is the world’s largest iron ore exporter. But none of his children could get involved in Vale, good business sense of him. Batista then did his own investments in iron ore, Brazilian infrastructure and oil and is becoming the world richest man in less than a decade.
But the interesting side of this interview is Eike Batista’s view of global growth. he points out that Brazil now has everything: a great natural resource base (huge offshore oil reserves, Batista believes that Brazil can become the 5th largest oil exporter in the world, a strong manufacturing sector).
Brazil was nearly not affected by the Western banking collapse. Why? Because only 14% of Brazil’s GDP is exported and because of Brazil’s growing booming middle class.
A lot of Batista’s business is with the Chinese. He is building ports and other facilities to ship iron ore, soy, and soon oil to China. He his great admiration for what is happening in China: “A billion-person middle class – they quickly become the low cost/high quality producer of everything: they are unstoppable.” But China is natural resource poor and they need to buy them from Brazil and other natural resource rich countries.
Also note how Batista points to the Brazilian banks being completely underleveraged today. Batista also requires respect for giving credits to Fernando Henrique (read the book on him) for Brazil’s current success.
The financial Times reports on Avon (the US direct sales cosmetic giant) sales in Brazil taking over sales in the US since the third quarter of 2009. Natura, the local Brasilian market leader is even bigger though with US$ 2,1 billion sales compared to US$ 1,67 billion sales for Avon Brasil.
Sales of Avon grew at a 27% rate last year. Last year the company opened a massive new distribution center in Cabreuva, an hour north of Sao Paulo.
The Financial times reports on the rising new consumers in Brazilian favelas. More than 20 million Brazilians have emerged from poverty over the past six years. Since last year, for the first time ever, more than half of Brazil’s 200 million people can be classified as middle income (earning an income between 1800 € and 450 €).
Globo reported yesterday on the record growth of income of the Brazilian Classe C. Classe C are people who earn monthly between R$ 1.115 and R$ 4.807 (between 432 and 1.862 €) and counts more than 91 million Brazilians today ! This group now earns 46% of the total Brazilian yearly income. This used to be 37% in 2003 !
In 2009 the two upper classes (A and B) earned 44% of the total income.
When investing in real estate the most important rule is: go where the middle class is.
In Europe the middle class is under heavy gunfire and in countries like South Africa the middle class is close to be extinguished.
Brazil on the other hand has a fast growing middle class of 91 million people earningbetween 432 and 1.862 €.
Just look at the Gini coefficient figures: the lower the figure, the more even is the income distributed
South Africa worsened from 59,3 in 1994 to 65 in 2005 and 67,9 in 2008. Soon the country will reach a staggering Gini index of 70 !
Brazil improved form 60,7 in 1994 to 56,7 in 2005 and is now going direction 50.
Brasil Economico reported yesterday on the Brazilian employment; unemployment was already on a record low of 7,5% end 2009. Minister of Labour and Employment Carlos Lupi revealed that January 2010 will feature a record growth (last record dates of January 2007 with 140.000 new jobs created). The final figures will be revealed next week; unemployment might drop below 7%; compared with the United States and Europe all featuring double-digit unemployment figures.
Brazilian Minister of Economy Guide Mantega foresees a job creation of 1,6 million jobs, close to the double of jobs created in 2009.
The Brazilian air company GOL announced a growth of 31,2% growth in passengers compared to last year, 8,5% more than in December. The company transported 3 million passengers, compared to 2.030.000 passengers in January 2009. The company had an occupancy rate of 79,4% in January.
Quite in contrast to the figures in Europe; Brussels Airport for example lost 8,4% of passengers in 2009 (lower nominal number of passengers than the annus horribilis of 2010). In the whole of Europe 20 million was the total loss of passengers in 2009 compared to 2008.
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